I’ll be going against the grain here and say that Pain intentionally waited for Might Guy to leave before attacking the village.
Every answer thus far has reasoned that Pain>X>Might Guy. I believe a direct comparison shows that Guy has distinct advantages in this match-up. If Guy had 6 gates open he would be able to take out 4 of 6 Pains near instantaneously. Assuming in this scenario he switched places with Naruto he would have:
- Katsuyu’s intel.
- Deva Path on cooldown after nuking the village
- Possible support from the village against animal path’s summons.
Asura Path: Mechanized Puppeteer with Missiles
This pain is deadly when used in conjunction with Deva Path’s universal pull. Asura path will destroy shinobi who are weak against taijutsu; obviously, this isn’t the case with Might Guy. I will say that this is one of the weaker pains. He is more suited towards killing users of long-range ninjutsu or those with lower chakra reserves. This Pain killed Kakashi because 1) no one knew much about Pain’s abilities at this point and 2) Asura path’s durability allowed him to outlast Kakashi’s naturally low chakra reserves. Kakashi loses because he lacks stamina/chakra that Naruto has.
Although formidable, after Naruto attains Sage Mode his taijutsu is still inferior to Might Guy’s. Might Guy doesn’t have a time limit either. With Guy, the match-up would look more like:
Human Path: Reads minds by ripping their soul out of a person’s body
As useful as this ability is for gathering intel, Nagato rarely uses this path in battle. I think Pain will most likely use the Human Path as a sacrificial piece to preserve the Naraka path. Without a defensive ability, Human Path will be crushed.
Again, refer to:
Preta Path: Absorbs chakra and all forms of ninjutsu
Preta Path is near unbeatable against 99% of shinobi. Think of the sheer number of pure ninjutsu users that are made useless because of this guy. Preta Path forces shinobi to abandon their ninjutsu and switch to taijutsu or genjutsu and then are clobbered by Asura Path’s puppeteering prowess. I can’t stress just how dominating this guy is; and yet, he is completely useless against the ultimate taijutsu master. He will be stomped in an instant.
Naraka Path: Interrogates enemies and resurrects fallen allies.
Naraka Path summons what is called “The King of Hell”, a gateway with the ability to steal the souls of those who lie and rejuvenate any Pains that have been destroyed. For this reason, Naraka path is always at the back of the formation in order to revive fallen allies. Unfortunately, in the match-up against Might Guy, 3 Pains would be downed in the course of a minute. There would be no time for reviving them.
4 down: 2 to go… Okay, here’s where things get tricky. If Guy is going to lose to Pain, its going to be because of these guys but I think its clear at this point that Pain has a severe weakness to Kage level taijutsu. Remember, its not the power level that matters, its the match-up. At six gates, Guy can move faster than Pain’s reaction time and deliver devastating blows in quick succession. This nullifies the advantage given to the rinnegan’s linked vision. Pain simply cannot dodge blows that he either can’t see or can’t react to. This is a HUGE advantage for Guy!
Guy is more than strong enough to one shot the 4 pains that I mentioned above. If you have any doubts, watch Guy’s final fight against Kisame which spliced together is about 2 minutes long.
Animal Path: Summons immortal monsters to fight for him
Animal Path has a clear advantage against Guy. He can summon wave after wave of OP immortal monsters to occupy Guy’s time while Deva Path is recharging his abilities. I think this is where Pain has the greatest edge in the match-up; it would be stupid of him not to take advantage of this. If Deva Path is allowed to recharge then the chances of Guy winning against Nagato at the end would crater from 99% to about 20%. As for Guy’s strategy, he would likely use Morning Peacock on the summons, open the 7th gate, and then kick Animal Path in the back of the head.
Deva Path: manipulates gravity to push/pull objects and people
Deva Path has been on cooldown for most of the fight. He is easily the most versatile and powerful of the Pains. Assuming that Guy doesn’t bash him into the ground before he’s recharged, this will be Pain’s one shot to secure victory. He has 3 paths to victory. 1) He delivers an almighty push powerful enough to incapicitate Guy. 2) Pain is forced to use Chibaku Tensei. 3) Might Guy opens the 8th gate and dies from his injuries before he can confront Nagato in the forest. #2 is the most likely. This is why I give Tendo an 80% of defeating Guy upon regaining his abilities.
To be clear, I am not some Guy fanboy. He’s certainly not my favorite character. I just think the Rinnegan is gimmicky and doesn’t hold water against a taijutsu user of Guy’s caliber. Like Itachi said to Sasuke when fighting Kabuto, “every jutsu has a weakness”. The six paths technique is no different.
In the show there are a large handful of jonin that I would consider “Kage tier”. Any shinobi of Kage caliber can defeat another if the match-up is right. The only exceptions are when you get to the God-tier at the end of FGNW. God-tier shinobi such as Madara, Obito, Hashirama, etc. don’t have weaknesses and thus it becomes a matter of X>Y>Z.
Feel free to argue in the comments. 😀